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In Small Foundation’s work, we often grapple with the question of how we know when the system is changing.
Unlike more traditional approaches, system change doesn’t lend itself to a set of metrics or a straightforward theory of change. Progress is rarely linear, and the most important shifts are often the least visible – changes in risk appetites, power dynamics and mindsets. It can take time before it is clear what is changing and whether the change is durable.
Over the past few years, our Impact Management & Learning work has focused on identifying information flows from partnerships and external sources and figuring out how to separate information from noise. While we are still early in this journey, below are a few things we have learned so far around identifying system change.
Visible change appears first
In our work, the earliest signals are tangible: new financial products being designed for rural SMEs, or innovative models for technical assistance being piloted. These are encouraging activities and good signs. They are useful starting points for where to look for the deeper changes that are required to shift systems.
Looking for changes in behaviour
To look beyond what is being created and ask whether the system is behaving differently, questions such as the below are useful:
- Are new models being adopted and replicated by others, without direct support?
- Is capital reaching rural enterprises on terms better suited to their needs?
- Are institutions changing how they assess opportunity and risk?
These kinds of shifts take longer to observe and are harder to detect, but they are more meaningful because they suggest that deeper patterns may be forming.
Looking at decision-making
In particular, we pay attention to decision points. When we see decision-making criteria evolve, collaboration held locally or policy advice turning into implementation, it gives us greater confidence that underlying assumptions are shifting.
This requires differentiating between changes in who is present, and how influence flows. We certainly want to see more voices: more local leaders shaping the system, and more entrepreneurs (especially those previously under-represented) having a say in how products and services are designed. At the same time, system change is revealed by shifts in who makes decisions, who controls resources, and whose perspectives shape the direction of the system. Without changes of this sort, it is possible to have greater visibility without meaningful change.
Reading signals together
To create system change, we know that more than one thing needs to shift at a time. To recognise system change, then, we find that we need combinations of indicators. We use the 6 conditions of systems change to help us categorise the types of change. For example, if we see:
- Stronger networks (relationships and connections): we would look to combine this with looking for where decision-making lies within the network (power dynamics) and an understanding of how the network is affecting policies, practices or resource flows of the system.
- An increase in capital (resource flows): we would look to understand whether that capital is appropriate, whether it is reaching new actors (power dynamics), and whether it is being deployed in different ways.
Looking for combinations of signals thus proves to be a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of system change. This goes against a desire to keep impact management simple, but it is ultimately more effective.
Staying focused on outcomes
Ultimately, our work is grounded in improving the lives of people living in conditions of poverty in rural Africa, so while we track changes across the system, we are continually asking how these shifts connect to livelihoods, resilience, and wellbeing. If the system becomes more active or more efficient at the intermediary level, but people’s lives do not improve, then we need to question whether meaningful change has taken place. We are constantly looking for good information resources to help inform us on this.
Continuing to learn
We don’t have a definitive answer to how best to measure systems change, and we are still learning as we go. What we do know is that we need to be patient, curious and willing to look beyond the most visible signs of progress. We also need to question our assumptions and remain open to the possibility that what looks like change may not always be so, and that change is not always positive. Identifying signals of systems change helps us engage in a reflective way, developing an understanding of whether the system is beginning to move, and whether that movement is likely to last.
